– Look at two of my classmate’s posts. I need you to respond to each one separately. Don’t write about how good their posts or how bad. All you need to do is to choose one point of the post and explore it a little bit with one source support for each response. In the attachment, you will find all the classmates posts.- APA Style.
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Why Natural Disasters Rock Democracies Less
By Alastair Smith and Alejandro Quiroz Flores
On January 12, 2010, Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince, was struck by a 7.0-magnitude earthquake
that caused widespread destruction and killed approximately 222,000 people. The next month,
Chile was hit by an 8.8-magnitude earthquake — approximately 500 times stronger than that in
Haiti — but only 500 people died.
Why the disparity? For one, Chile rigorously enforces strict building codes, so there was less
immediate damage to the infrastructure near the earthquake’s epicenter. The government of
President Michelle Bachelet was also quick to act once the earthquake hit. It immediately began
to coordinate international and domestic relief efforts to get supplies and shelter to those in need.
In contrast, there is no national building code in Haiti, and the country’s government was barely
functional even before the earthquake, let alone after. In the weeks that followed the quake,
many officials seemed less interested in helping the hundreds of thousands of newly homeless
than in enriching themselves. Several government officials have been accused of stealing
international aid, and, even worse, some aid distributers have been charged with demanding
sexual favors or cash in return for food and shelter. Dissatisfaction ran so high that police were
breaking up violent protests by May 2010.
Governments cannot prevent earthquakes and other natural disasters, but they can prepare for
them and ameliorate their effects. Measures to do so are well known. That so many countries in
earthquake-prone regions of the world fail to adequately regulate construction, for example,
seems to defy logic. Yet when faced with a choice to insist on the use of reliable cement in
construction projects or to award contracts to cronies who are less inclined to use safe materials,
politicians too often choose the latter, with disastrous consequences. In 2003, an earthquake in
Bam, Iran, killed at least 30,000. China is plagued by such disasters, which can leave hundreds
of thousands dead. Similar earthquakes in Chile, Japan, and the United States have killed far
fewer. The difference is in the preparation: Chile, Japan, and the United States have implemented
policies that keep acts of nature from becoming massive human tragedies; Iran and China have
It is tempting to suggest that a country’s ability to prepare is a matter of money. After all, the
United States and Japan are extremely wealthy. However, although wealth certainly matters,
politics are more important. Four decades ago, a 7.9-magnitude quake struck Peru, killing about
66,000 people. In 2001, an even stronger earthquake hit but killed less than 150 people.
Admittedly, the population density in the area of the first earthquake was about twice that in the
second. But that alone does not account for the huge disparity in casualties. Neither does income.
Peru’s per capita income was virtually identical in real terms at both points. The big difference
was political. In 2001, Peru was a democracy, whereas in 1970 it was not. The 1906 earthquake
in San Francisco, one of the worst in U.S. history, killed more than three thousand people. The
United States’ GDP per capita at the time was comparable to nondemocratic Mexico’s in 1985 -the year a similarly sized earthquake struck Mexico City, killing three times as many. And
whereas a 2001 earthquake in democratic India killed more than 20,000 people, a slightly smaller
2005 earthquake in nondemocratic (and then slightly wealthier) Pakistan killed more than
In a democracy, leaders must maintain the confidence of large portions of the population in order
to stay in power. To do so, they need to protect the people from natural disasters by enforcing
building codes and ensuring that bureaucracies are run by competent administrators. When
politicians fail to deliver — by, for example, letting too many die in disasters — they lose their
jobs. On average, 39 percent of democracies experience anti-government protests within any
two-year period. The rate almost doubles after a major earthquake (defined as one that results in
more than 200 casualties). And whereas 40 percent of democratic nations replace their leader in
any two-year period, between 1976 and 2007, 91 percent of them did so following a major
The story of Turkey is instructive. In 1999, the country experienced two large earthquakes in the
course of three months, in August and November. The death toll from the first reached 17,000.
Public anger over shoddily constructed housing almost cost the newly elected prime minister,
Bülent Ecevit, his job. When the second earthquake struck, the government was much better
prepared. In contrast to its sluggish and uncoordinated efforts following August’s quake, by
November the government had created a crisis center to coordinate domestic and international
aid and was able to rapidly deploy its armed forces to deliver assistance in affected areas. The
death toll from the November earthquake was below one thousand, and the government was
widely praised for its actions.
Democracies need to prepare for other types of disasters as well. One reason why the
Republicans lost congressional seats in 2006 and 2008 may well have been the Bush
administration’s poor performance after Hurricane Katrina slammed the Gulf Coast states in
2005. President Barack Obama now faces his own Gulf crisis: the BP oil spill. The country will
judge him on his management of the disaster, and so far, he has dedicated significant resources to
fixing the problem. This stands in contrast to the way nondemocratic Nigerian politicians, for
example, have handled oil spills in the Niger Delta. They allow oil companies to pollute the area
with impunity. Easily fixed pipes are allowed to leak for months for want of political will.
Indeed, a lack of political will to confront disasters plagues nondemocratic regimes, which,
unlike democratic governments, do not rely on popular support. As in democracies, the rate of
anti-government protests almost doubles after major earthquakes, but the rate at which the
governments are deposed does not increase by nearly as much — from 22 percent over any twoyear period to 24 percent following a major earthquake. Democratically elected leaders are
highly sensitive to casualties from natural disasters, but nondemocratic leaders are not. And,
indeed, the latter do a poor job of protecting their citizens from Mother Nature.
In 2008, Cyclone Nargis hit the coast of Myanmar (also called Burma). The death toll was
138,000. Not only did the military regime do virtually nothing to help the communities worst
affected it also blocked the arrival of international aid. The casualties were two orders of
magnitude greater than those from Hurricane Katrina, but Myanmar’s military regime remains
For those living in nondemocratic countries, the safest place to endure natural disasters is in
important economic or political centers, where politicians may fear citizen uprisings. Myanmar’s
peasants were essentially unable to take political advantage of Cyclone Nargis because they were
dispersed over remote regions. Indeed, they did not even protest in the wake of the disaster. In
China, the government only half-heartedly assisted the remote province of Qinghai after an
earthquake in 2010 and suffered few political consequences for its inaction. But when an
earthquake hit Sichuan in 2008, the Chinese government — wary of protest in this politically and
economically powerful center — undertook relief operations that won the approval of much of the
Earthquakes in politically sensitive areas such as the capital may threaten autocrats, but highcasualty events elsewhere do not; politicians respond to the desires of their immediate
constituents and regard the needs of others as far less salient. It matters little that the means exist
to mitigate the effects of disasters if politicians are not incentivized to implement them. Despite
high casualties, autocrats can expect to keep their thrones. On the other hand, democratic leaders
who fail to prevent natural disasters from causing calamity are replaced. As such, democrats plan
and react to natural disasters, while autocrats do not.
The recent earthquakes in Chile and Haiti are illustrations of this dynamic. Given the extremely
high magnitude of the earthquake in democratic Chile, the resulting 500 casualties were
relatively few, and the government has been rightly praised for its effective response. Though
Bachelet was nearing her term limit at the time of the earthquake, her management of the crisis
helped her party and is expected to benefit her if she runs for reelection in 2014. On the other
hand, the more autocratic Haitian government has failed to provide even basic recovery services
for the 230,000 victims buried in rubble. Elections in Haiti are notoriously corrupt, and the
regime has already used the earthquake as an excuse to postpone even these half-hearted
contests. Although there have been a few protests, the regime seems likely to endure despite its
abject failure to help its people.
Political survival lies at the heart of disaster politics. Unless politicians are beholden to the
people, they have little motivation to spend resources to protect their citizens from Mother
Nature, especially when these resources could otherwise be earmarked for themselves and their
small cadre of supporters. What is worse, the casualty count after a disaster is a major
determinant of the amount of international assistance a country receives. Relief funds can even
enhance a nondemocrat’s hold on power if they are used to buy off supporting elites. Given such
incentives, autocrats’ indifference to disaster-related deaths will continue. The fix can only be
political — leaders will not use the policies already available to mitigate the effects of natural
disasters until they have the incentives to do so.
– Look at two of my classmate’s posts. I need you to respond to each one
separately. Don’t write about how good their posts or how bad. All you need to
do is to choose one point of the post and explore it a little bit with one source
support for each response. In the attachment, you will find all the classmates
– APA Style.
-Discussion Board Question:
Access this link: Disaster Politics reading(1).pdf
This focuses on one element of how governments approach disasters and preparations.
Another area is the influence that governments have during disasters and how they “support”
their population during a crisis. Disaster relief can be a powerful political tool in order to
maintain control over their population.
Look at some recent disasters or Humanitarian events, such as the Ebola outbreak or the Haiti
earthquake of 2010. From your readings, attempt to cite an example of how political
influence can obstruct effective disaster operations. Briefly comment on what impact NGO’s
may have- good or bad- in politically unstable environments.
Student 1 post:
As revealed by Smith and Flores (2010), many officials lost their seats in the years
2006 and 2008 due to poor emergency management performance after Hurricane Katrina in
2005. This reveals that a lack of political will can harm disaster management processes.
Another example is evident where most of the government officials in countries like Haiti
were accused of stealing the humanitarian aid for self-benefits instead of assisting the victims
during the 2010 earthquake catastrophe (Smith, & Flores, 2010). It is also evident that the
politically unstable environments where corruption is at the core also make it challenging for
NGOs to perform their tasks effectively. Unfortunately, this has a severe impact on the NGOs
such that they get demotivated in providing humanitarian aid when disasters strike.
Overall, governments have significant roles to play in ensuring that they support their
populations during disasters. In this case, governments have the mandate of having
coordinated efforts such as establishing crisis centers to organize the dissemination of
domestic and international relief aid. As seen in Turkey in 1999, the government took rapid
actions in providing basic needs to the affected regions (Smith, & Flores, 2010).
Unfortunately, when there is political unrest, such activities that ensure there is a flow of the
supply chain cannot be successful. In this case, Kovacs and Spens (2012) hold that the
unrests destroy the commitment of agencies in providing aid due to lack of trust,
organization, and loyalty between them and the governments.
Kovacs, G., & Spens, K. M. (2012). Relief supply chain management for disasters:
humanitarian aid and emergency logistics. Hershey, PA: Information Science Reference.
Smith, A., & Flores, A. Q. (2010). Disaster Politics, Why Natural Disasters Rock
Democracies Less. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2010-0715/disaster-politics
Student 2 post
Damages caused by disasters are immeasurable and influence several aspects of a
country including the mental, socio-economic, cultural, and political state. Disasters are
sudden and bring great damage, loss, and destruction of both property and life(Srivastava,
2010). Different countries survive disasters differently, partly because of politics and the
nature of the disaster. The earthquake that struck Haiti’s capital with a magnitude of 7.0 in
2010, for instance, resulted in widespread destruction and about 222,000 deaths. There was
also an earthquake in 2010 that struck Chile but of a greater magnitude than the one of Haiti,
about five hundred times more but resulted in about five hundred deaths.
Politics played a part in the significant effects of the disasters considering that Chile’s
political system is stable. The country has a working government system that enforces strict
building codes because of the country’s susceptibility to earthquakes. The government is also
swift in its actions as it immediately begins aid and recovery upon a disaster thus increasing
the chances of survival. The government sets up a secure channel for coordination with the
international and domestic relief to help the disaster struck areas. Haiti, on the other hand, has
a weak political system with the government barely functional thus reducing the ability to act
before, during, and after a disaster (Smith & Flores, 2010). Politicians in the country aim on
enriching themselves rather than helping the people. The effect of politics is immense
considering that they are the ones who set policies regarding building codes that can sustain
some level of earthquake magnitudes.
Even though governments cannot prevent disasters, they can prepare for them to
reduce their effects. NGOs play a crucial role in politically unstable environments by
educating and influencing the instruments of governance as they seek to improve the
Smith, A., & Flores, A. Q. (2010). Disaster Politics.
Srivastava, K. (2010). Disaster: Challenges and perspectives. Industrial psychiatry journal,
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